---
id: ch2-framework
type: spine
title: "Foresight as a working method, not a forecast"
readingTime: 2
standalone: true
core: true
teaser: "PoliRural+ plans with foresight: read the drivers of change, agree where the region wants to land, then get the people who hold the budgets to commit."
voice: universal
parent: null
diagram: null
recallQ: "How does the PoliRural+ foresight framework (D3.1) turn a discussion about the future into an action plan?"
recallA: "It runs a bottom-up process with beneficiaries and a top-down process with implementing actors in parallel. It moves from divergent exploration of drivers of change (STEEPV, ranked to 2–5 priority trends) to a convergent agreement on a vision, an action plan and a financed roadmap."
highlights:
  - "Foresight is a structured way of thinking about the future; the target is financed action, not a report"
  - "Two parallel tracks: bottom-up with beneficiaries, top-down with implementing actors"
  - "Drivers of change are listed under STEEPV and narrowed to 2–5 priority trends"
  - "D3.1 warns against 'toolheads': the method is a social process learnt by doing"
status: accepted
concept: foresight-framework
conceptTitle: "The foresight framework"
lang: en
lens: generic
depth: standard
formalism: none
visuality: balanced
lengthBand: standard
genre: explainer
state: core
carriers: prose|table
---

Objective O1 commits PoliRural+ to a **foresight-based framework** for interregional cooperation. D3.1 defines foresight as **a structured approach to thinking about the future**: understanding how the world is changing and what steps a region needs to thrive despite the threats and to build on the opportunities. The test it sets is blunt. The intended result of a plan is **"not a 'report,' but adequately financed action being implemented at local level."**

## Two tracks in parallel

Foresight work in PoliRural+ is highly participative and runs two processes at once (D3.1, Overview):
- a **bottom-up** process with the **beneficiaries**, the people who will benefit from the measures;
- a **top-down** process with the **actors**, the institutions that must implement them.

Emphasis shifts from beneficiaries at the start to actors at the end. Who those people are, and how they are brought together, is the [multi-actor approach](#c/multi-actor-approach) and the [quintuple helix](#c/multi-actor-approach) of chapter 9.

## Diverge, then converge

The work opens with a **divergent** phase: judgement is suspended and participants learn how change is happening. The main tool is a **drivers' analysis** that lists trends, drivers, enablers and barriers under six STEEPV headings:

| Heading | Examples D3.1 gives |
|---|---|
| Social | age pyramid, gender, family organisation |
| Technological | road, rail, rural broadband |
| Economic | cost of living, housing, wage stagnation, energy costs |
| Environmental | climate, soil, water, biodiversity, plant and animal disease |
| Political | new EU legislation, CAP reform, Green Transition |
| Values | concern for the planet, food movements, cooperatives, privacy |

PoliRural left an inventory of **64 drivers** across these six categories as a starting point. Global megatrends get **localised**: climate change becomes coastal flooding, landslides or crop loss in this region. Unfamiliar topics get a deep-dive workshop. Then the group ranks factors, by simple lists, a two-axis grid or multi-criteria software, down to **2 to 5 priority trends**, "certainly not 15 or 21".

The **convergent** phase turns that understanding into a shared vision and then a plan (see [Regional Action Plans](#c/regional-action-plan)).

## Not a recipe

D3.1 warns against **"toolheads"**, people who follow a checklist without thinking. It uses John Seddon's term and the quality-management tradition of Deming and Ohno. Creating a plan is a social process, learnt by doing, so the document advises teams to find a mentor and to use phone calls and meetings rather than long emails.

Its newest element is **Work Awareness Journaling**: teams record how they work, so that low-code/no-code AI and automation tools from WP2 and WP4 can be co-designed to take on the heavy drafting, ranking and evidence-gathering. The updated methodology, D3.2, is due in month 36.

**Sources:**
- D3.1 RAP Methodology, Executive Summary, Overview of the RAP Methodology, Toolheads Beware, Phase II: Drivers' Analysis — [PDF](https://www.poliruralplus.eu/docs/161/D3.1__RAP_Methodology_v1.pdf)
- Project fact sheet (Grant Agreement 101136910, facts as published on CORDIS): objective O1