---
id: ch10-system-dynamics
type: spine
title: "System dynamics: modelling feedback in rural-urban plans"
readingTime: 2
standalone: true
core: true
teaser: "Some policy effects arrive late and in another sector. System dynamics is how PoliRural+ commits to modelling them, starting in County Monaghan."
voice: thinker
parent: null
diagram: diagram-system-dynamics
recallQ: "Where does system dynamics appear in PoliRural+, and what is it meant to add to Regional Action Plans?"
recallA: "Objective O6 names it as an instrument of mission-oriented experimentation, and the Monaghan technical pilot TP1 uses it with action-foresight and MapWhiteboard to define and implement the RAP. It adds feedback and delayed trade-offs that static indicators miss."
highlights:
  - "Objective O6: data-driven decisions, collaborative analysis and system dynamics for a well-being economy"
  - "Technical pilot TP1 (Monaghan) combines action-foresight, system dynamics and MapWhiteboard"
  - "D2.3 flags the kind of trade-off feedback models are built for: short-term gains, long-term ecosystem costs"
  - "The public deliverables reviewed here do not yet document a released model"
status: accepted
concept: system-dynamics
conceptTitle: "System dynamics in rural policy"
parents: foresight-framework
lang: en
lens: generic
depth: standard
formalism: none
visuality: balanced
lengthBand: standard
genre: explainer
state: core
carriers: prose|diagram
---

**System dynamics** models a territory as stocks, such as people, jobs or farmland, that change through flows. Feedback loops between them can amplify or dampen what a policy does. The method suits problems where effects arrive late and in a different sector from the one where the policy acts.

## Where it sits in PoliRural+

- **Objective O6** lists system dynamics, together with data-driven decision-making and collaborative analysis, among the means of mission-oriented experimentation for a well-being economy (Grant Agreement).
- In County Monaghan, **technical pilot TP1**, led by the National Microelectronics Applications Centre (MAC), defines and implements the rural-urban RAP using action-foresight, system dynamics modelling and MapWhiteboard (project fact sheet; see the [Monaghan pilot](#c/monaghan-pilot)).
- D4.1 lists support for foresight methods and dynamic modelling among the Advisor's intended features (§6.2.1).

## Why feedback matters for RAPs

D2.3's literature review warns that uncoordinated urban expansion can bring short-term economic gains and long-term ecosystem trade-offs. It recommends that scenario analysis include urban-expansion trade-offs and synergy indices (D2.3 §3, Table 6). These effects are delayed and cut across sectors, which is the kind of behaviour a feedback model is built to make visible and a single indicator is not.

The revised RAPs treat [foresight](#c/foresight-framework) as a cycle (anticipate, design, implement, review) that has become the standard process for developing and adjusting a RAP. Pilots also report that monitoring is "moving from static to dynamic" (D2.3 §5.1).

## What the public sources do not yet show

None of the public deliverables used for this book documents a released PoliRural+ system dynamics tool or model results. The Monaghan RAP is the place to watch. Validation evidence for the final platform is due in D4.3 at the end of the project (D4.2 §11.1).

**Sources:**
- PoliRural+ public fact sheet (Grant Agreement facts), objective O6; technical pilot TP1. [poliruralplus.eu](https://www.poliruralplus.eu/)
- D2.3 Rural-urban data analysis, §3 Rural-Urban Linkages – Literature Review (Table 6); §5.1 Cross-Pilot Learning. [PDF](https://www.poliruralplus.eu/docs/382/D2.3_Rural_Urban_data_analysis_v1.0.pdf)
- D4.1 PoliRuralPlus platform design, §6.2.1 Technical Description. [PDF](https://www.poliruralplus.eu/docs/162/D4.1_PoliRuralPlus_platform_design_v1.pdf)
- D4.2 PoliRuralPlus Platform Beta, §11.1 Remaining development priorities. [PDF](https://www.poliruralplus.eu/docs/421/D4.2_PoliRuralPlus_Platform_Beta.pdf)